How..?

If you’re wondering how in the world we made these, what may seem like strange, matches, here is the complete process we went through to narrow down these matches. This is based on the information we have received up to 02/14/2013, the week of episode 4.

Okay SO, so far here is what we know for sure based on the first four episodes. We know that Shanley and Chris T. are NOT a perfect match, thanks to the truth booth on episode one. We know that Ethan and Jessica are NOT a perfect match  because of the truth booth on episode two. We know that JJ and Simone are NOT a perfect match, thanks to the truth booth on episode three. AND we know that Dillan and Jessica are not a match from episode three. We also have gotten a hint from MTV that Ethan and Amber ARE a perfect match. So we have compiled all of the couples from the match up ceremonies at the end of each episode  and made it into this nice little chart (sorry it’s small). We know that in the first episode, there were 2 perfect matches, in the second there were 4, in the third there were 2 and in the fourth there were also 2.

aytoone

We took this chart and eliminated what we know from the above information. Because we know that Ethan and Amber are a perfect match, we can cross out Ethan and Shanley from E1, Ryan and Amber from E1, Adam and Amber from E4, and Ethan and Kayla from E4. Also, because of the truth booth, we can cross out JJ and Simone (E1) and Dillan and Jessica (E4). Following me so far?

ayto2

From here, we started guessing based on the information from the show. (We tried several different theories and match-ups and the one we are showing you now, is the only one that fits completely.) Now that we know, from the truth booth, that Dillan and Jessica are NOT a perfect match, we decided to put Dillan and Coleysia together. We think they are really cute together and they are good for each other. So, with that theory, we can cross out a few more things on the chart:

ayto3

ayto4

Still with me?? Here is where it gets interesting (and a little sad, actually). Notice that for episode 3, there were only 2 perfect match ups in that ceremony. We have selected Dillan and Coleysia and Ethan and Amber as perfect matches, so that fulfills the 2 match ups. That means, the rest of those match ups in that episode are NOT perfect matches so we crossed them out. From this, we were able to cross off a few in other episodes that were duplicate match ups as episode three. That brings us to this:

ayto5

From here, we made another guess. In the most recent episode, we thought it was adorable how Wes was all lovestruck over Kayla and got really jealous when her and Ryan were together. We put them as a perfect couple: Wes and Kayla. They originally hit it off really well and have a lot in common. With this theory, we could cross off all of the possibilities on the chart having to do with Wes or Kayla. Episode one only had 2 perfect matches, and Dillan and Coleysia and Wes and Kayla fulfill this. We can cross off the rest of the match ups in episode one.

ayto6

After that, we made another theory. In the most recent match up ceremony, Ryan and Brittany mentioned that they have been talking lately about how they might be a match. So we explored this idea. We think they would be a great couple and they have a lot in common. (We do love Ryan and Kayla together, but every trial we tried with them simply did not work). So we chose them as a perfect match. We were able to cross out any other match ups including Brittany or Ryan from here. Again, we see that with Dillan & Coleysia a perfect match and now Ryan & Brittany, we fulfill the 2 perfect matches in that ceremony. We can cross out what remains from those match ups.

ayto7

From here, it’s just trial and error between who is left. The remaining match ups in week 2 are Adam & Shanley, Chris S. & Simone, Chris T. & Paige, and JJ & Jacy. So that leaves us with 6 guys and 6 girls all together that we are unsure about who their perfect match is. GUYS: Adam, Chris S., Chris T., JJ, Joey, and Dre. GIRLS: Shanley, Simone, Paige, Jacy, Jessica, and Ashleigh.  So looking at what’s left on week two, we need to do a bit of trial and error to eliminate one of these remaining 4 match ups. We tried every combination possible between the couples that were left. For example, we tried eliminating Chris S. and  Simone to see if Adam & Shanley, Chris T. & Paige, and JJ & Jacy would all work. But using the information we know of who CAN’T be with who from our previous eliminations on the chart, this match up did not work because it would have left us with 5 perfect matches in week 2 instead of 4. The only combination that worked was eliminating Adam & Shanley from the chart, leaving us with Chris S. & Simone, Chris T. & Paige, and JJ & Jacy. Using this information and the remaining guys and girls and who can’t be with who (see below) we narrowed it down to our final couples: Adam & Jessica, Dre & Shanley, Joey & Ashleigh.

(REASONING: Chris S.  couldn’t be with Ashleigh or Paige because they had already been crossed off the chart, Chris T. couldn’t be with Jessica or Ashleigh, JJ couldn’t be with Jessica or Shanley, Joey couldn’t be with Paige, Shanley or Jacy, and Dre couldn’t be with Jacy or Ashleigh.)

That brought us to our 10 perfect matches: Ethan & Amber, Wes & Kayla, Dillan & Coleysia, Ryan & Brittany, Chris T. & Paige, Chris S. & Simone, and Adam & Jessica, Dre & Shanley, JJ & Jacy, and Joey & Ashleigh.

Everything fits with the match up ceremonies and when looking at each of our match ups, they all really do go perfectly together when you think about their personalities, goals from their bios on MTV, the way they act on the show, and more. If you think you can prove us wrong, see an error in our theory, or if you think you have better match ups, let us know!

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48 thoughts on “How..?

  1. Cool method guys! One thing I’m not quite clear on – was this the first solution that worked, or did you actual run through all other possible solutions?

    If people want to see charts in a larger format, check them out at areyoutheonetracker.wordpress.com

    1. Thanks! To answer your question, this WAS the first solution we tried and by chance it worked out perfectly. But We have tried several other possibilities after getting this one and nothing else has worked out so far

  2. if you look at the new preview of the couple on MTV blog about the show. the Silloutte leads to Brittany and Joey being the next “for-sure” couple

      1. Well if you look at Brittany’d twitter she confirms she and Joey are a match. I just need a lost of last night’s matches

  3. In the second match up ceremony you have JJ with Jessica but you already had Jessica also matched up with Dre in the same episode. That episode had JJ matched with Jacy which would make your final prediction wrong because it would give you 5 correct matchups in episode 2 instead of 4.

  4. I’m pretty confident about this: Joey and Brittany, Ethan and Amber, Dillan and Coleysia , JJ and Jacy, Wes and Kayla, Dre and Simone , Adam and Shanley, Ryan and Paige, Chris T and Jessica, Chris S and Ashleigh :)

  5. I like your method. Using it, I noticed that “Chris S & Simone,” “Chris T & Paige” AND “JJ and Jacy” can’t all be matches. This is because in episode 2 Joey & Brittany are a match, as revealed by MTV. The other match is Ethan & Amber. And the third match is most likely (although not positively) JJ & Jacy.

  6. After yesterday’s episode, we have 3 confirmed matches: Amber/Ethan, Dillan/Coleysia, Joey/Brittany. Same as you, I started eliminating based on that and the couples who we know are NOT matches. For now, I’m like 97% certain that Wes/Kayla and Dre/Simone are a perfect match. And 2 of these 3 (Adam/Shanley, Chris T/Paige, and JJ/Jacy) are perfect matches. That’s what I have until now. My guess is after next week, we can find out for certain doing this “elimination game” again.

  7. My predictions are:
    Amber/Ethan – MATCH
    Dillan/Coleysia -MATCH
    Joey/Brittany -MATCH
    Wes/Kayla
    Chris T/Paige
    JJ/Jacy
    Chris S/Ashleigh
    Adam/Jessica
    Dre/SImone
    Ryan/Shanley

    1. In episode one, Dillan and Coleysia, Wes and Kayla, and Chris S and Ashleigh were all paired. They had only two perfect matches – so my guess is Chris S and Ashleigh aren’t a match.

  8. Okay, so I used like 3 pages of notebook paper, and here is what I have:

    Ethan-Amber
    Dillan-Coleysia
    Joey-Brittany
    Chris-Paige
    Wes-Kayla
    Adam-Shanley
    Ryan-Jessica
    Dre-Simone
    John-Ashleigh
    Scali-Jacy

    Let me know if you guys spot any errors!!!

    1. I think your right but I feel like Chris s maybe with with Jessica just because she’s a little thicker than jacy and Ryan is super skinny so I feel like he would physically pair better with jacy… Just food for thought …. But it could be your way too!!!

    2. JJ and Jacy have to be a match because at week two there were four correct matches which were
      Chris t and paige
      ethan and amber
      joey and brittany
      Jj and jacy

      all the others were incorrect.

      as well as adam cannot be with shanley as episode 5 because there were 5 matches which were
      Chris t and paige
      dillan and coleysia
      ethan and amber
      jj and jacy
      wes and kayla

      1. Unless JJ/Jacy aren’t a match, making adam/shanley one of the perfect matches of that week. And I don’t think they are, I think it’s jj/ash, jacy/scali, adam/shanley

  9. The only way it works.
    Adam & Ashleigh
    Chris S. & Jessica
    Chris T. & Paige
    Dillian & Coleysia
    Dre & Simone
    Ethan & Amber
    Joey & Brittany
    JJ & Jacy
    Ryan & Shanley
    Wes & Kayla

  10. Went over it again (it’s driving me crazy!). Based on my own elimination game and which personalities I think would mesh well, I got:

    Dillan/Coleysia*
    Ethan/Amber*
    Joey/Brittany*
    Wes/Kayla
    Chris T/Paige
    Ryan/Jess
    Adam/Shanley
    Dre/Simone
    JJ/Ashleigh
    Scali/Jacy

  11. I don’t know what it is, but something isn’t right about yalls picked matches.

    In the recent episode, 5 matches were paired.

    1 for sure is Dillan and Coleysia, the 2nd was Ethan and Amber.

    That leaves 3, but 4 others of yalls matches were matched up.
    For example, Wes and Kayla, JJ and Jacy, Chris T. and Paige, Chris S. and Simone.

    All 6 of those matches aren’t possible, if only five lights went off.

  12. After incorporating week 5 results, there are still 10 different scenarios. The most likey matching for each guy are

    Adam/Shanley
    Chris S./Simone
    Chris T./Paige
    Dillan/Coleysia
    Dre/Simone
    Ethan/Amber
    Joey/Brittany
    JJ/Jacy
    Ryan/Jessica
    Wes/Kayla

    Now, Simone appears twice because this is the most likely matching for each guy, and Ashleigh is not particularly likely for any one guy. However, what I think the actual perfect matches are is:

    Adam/Paige
    Chris S./Simone
    Chris T./Ashleigh
    Dillan/Coleysia
    Dre/Shanley
    Ethan/Amber
    Joey/Brittany
    JJ/Jacy
    Ryan/Jessica
    Wes/Kayla

  13. I believe based on process of elimination as well as logically thought on who seems based on personality to compliment each other:

    Coleysia/Dillan PERFECT MATCH
    Amber/Ethan PERFECT MATCH
    Brittany/Joey GIF CLUE MATCH
    Paige/Chris T. Released on episode 7 summary, on streaming website
    Kayla/Wes
    Simone/Dre
    Shanley/Adam
    Ashleigh/john j
    Jacy/Ryan
    Jessica/Chris S.

    1. This seems more correct after watching episode 5.
      I put my theory on the other page but I firmly believe that JJ/Jacy and Scali/Simone are not a match. I think that Ashleigh/JJ match up is a good pair up. My only other alternative (using only info from the past 5 episodes and clues) are that JJ/Shanley or Ryan/Ashleigh are a match.

  14. I have an alternate theory using similar methods that also works with the ceremonies so far:

    Amber & Ethan
    Dillan & Coleysia
    Chris T. & Paige
    Wes & Kayla
    Brittany & Joey
    Simone & Dre
    J.J & Ashleigh
    Adam & Shanley
    Jess & Chris S.
    Jacy & Ryan

  15. From a purely mathematical standpoint, there were 10! (10 factorial) = 3,628,800 possible combinations of matches when we started episode one. There are only 5 combinations left which fit what we now know. All 5 combinations have the following matches.

    (CT+Pa)(Di+Co)(Jo+Br)(Et+Am)(We+Ka)

    These are the other matches in the only 5 combinations which still fit.

    1. (Dr+Si)(Ad+As)(JJ+Ja)(Ry+Sh)(CS+Je)
    2. (Dr+Si)(Ad+As)(JJ+Ja)(Ry+Je)(CS+Sh)
    3. (Dr+Si)(Ad+Sh)(JJ+As)(Ry+Ja)(CS+Je)
    4. (Dr+Si)(Ad+Sh)(JJ+As)(Ry+Je)(CS+Ja)
    5. (Dr+Je)(Ad+As)(JJ+Sh)(Ry+Ja)(CS+Si)

    Statistically, they each have equal probability. But some may see one of these as more likely than the others, based on the interactions shown on the show.

    Cheers!

  16. Ethan and Amber because of a “hint” from MTV ???? well there may be a hint or it may be a red herring having not seen it I dont know, so I’m going to base my judgement on the evidence that ive seen in the truth booth and matching up ceremonies.

  17. Still pretty confident with…

    1. Amber & Ethan
    2. Dillan & Coleysia
    3. Chris T. & Paige
    4. Brittany & Joey
    5. Wes & Kayla
    6. Adam & Shanley
    7. Dre & Simone
    8. Ryan & Jess
    9. J.J. & Ashleigh (weird, i know)
    10. Scali & Jacy

    1. I’m with you, tonight I wanna see what goes down w/ Chris T/Paige/Shanley…i feel so bad for Paige, cause Chris T was being a douche and Shanley is a mess (don’t like her at all)

      1. Same here, I don’t understand what is Shanley’s problem. Her speech nauseated me. What about Paige’s feelings and emotions isn’t she a person doesn’t she have feelings, doesn’t she want to feel wanted by her perfect match. I cried for Paige in the honeymoon suite. Chris T’s behavior is uncalled for. So wrong!!!!

      2. I know! Shanley got upset cause people are trying to do what they went there to do (find their match and win the money). Since week 1 they knew they weren’t a match, and neither backed off, which is completely selfish cause they’re messing the game up for the 18 others in the house.
        And they have the audacity to get mad at everyone else?! UGH!

  18. Jenn, I agree with you. From watching the mid-season trailer on MTV’s website…I’m not convinced that JJ and Jacy are a match. JJ and Ashleigh seem kinda weird, but she was all up on Dre and I really haven’t seen her talk with anyone else.

  19. Yes! Kayla/wes, ryan/jess, adam/shanley, jj/ash, dre/simone, ethan/amber, ct/paige, dill/col, brit/joey, scali/jacy I KNOW IT!!!

  20. My Guesses are

    Kayla and Wes
    Ethan and Amber
    Joey and Brittany
    Chris T and Paige
    JJ and Jacy
    Dre and Simone
    Ryan and Ashleigh
    Scali and Shanley
    Adam and Jess
    Dillon and Coleysia

    Anyone Agree or Disagree?

    I did it as a logic puzzle eliminating couple possibilities and concluded with these results

  21. i really resent mtv leaking answers on twitter and so on grrr, would rather have worked it out for myself.

    also, when they didnt show a matchup ceremony at week 6, that said to me that the contestants would win the money in week 9…. the producers still had 10 shows to air, but only 9 matchup ceremonies to show – so the dramatic week 6 events seemed a good time to miss one out

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